Historical climatic instability predicts the inverse latitudinal pattern in speciation rate of modern mammalian biota

Evolutionary rate explanations for latitudinal diversity gradients predict faster speciation and diversification rates in richer, older, and more stable tropical regions (climatic stability hypothesis). Numerous modern lineages have emerged in high latitudes, however, suggesting that climatic oscillations can drive population divergence, at least among extratropical species (glacial refugia hypothesis). This conflicting evidence suggests that geographical patterns of evolutionary rates are more complicated than previously thought.

Here, we reconstructed the complex evolutionary dynamics of a comprehensive dataset of modern mammals, both terrestrial and marine. We performed global and regional regression analyses to investigate how climatic instability could have indirectly influenced contemporary diversity gradients through its effects on evolutionary rates. In particular, we explored global and regional patterns of the relationships between species richness and assemblage-level evol...