Spatial overlap between predicted Culicoides imicola abundance for present and future periods according to the CGM2 circulation model.

The A2 and B2 emission scenarios are shown. Different thresholds for the abundance of C. imicola were fitted to conduct the estimations. We estimated the percentage of localities with a predicted abundance over each threshold for the present that were also over the same threshold for future periods (P). Additionally, we estimated the percentage of localities predicted over each threshold for the future and under the same threshold in the present model (FP). Similarly, we estimated the percentage of localities with C. imicola abundance over the threshold — only with models for the present — with at least one bluetongue outbreak detected in 2007 (BT).