Lightning climate projections for Brazil: processed dataset

This repository contains the processed datasets used to analyse and project lightning activity over Brazil (2004–2100). The data were generated by combining lightning stroke detections from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) with atmospheric reanalysis from ERA5 and climate projections from the CMIP6 EC-Earth3-Veg model (scenarios SSP245 and SSP585). Contents anomaly_data_SST/ – processed sea-surface temperature anomalies for Niño3.4, tropical Atlantic, and other subregions. EC_EARTH3_Quartely/ – bias-corrected quarterly predictor series from the EC-Earth3-Veg model (SSP245 and SSP585, 2015–2100). ERA5_inZones_Quartely/ – observed quarterly predictors from ERA5 reanalysis (2004–2025). index_ENSO/ – ENSO indices used in correlation analyses. climatology_zones_0_1.tif – GeoTIFF mask of Brazilian climate zones. monthly_efficiency_series.csv – relative detection efficiency of WWLLN, monthly (no estimated). complete_efficiency_series.csv – relative detection efficiency of WWLLN, monthly (estimated without 2009 RDE maps). complete_efficiency_series_with2009.csv – relative detection efficiency of WWLLN, monthly (estimated with 2009 RDE maps). data_lightning_quarters_*.csv – lightning density per zone, quarterly series, with and without efficiency correction estimated with 2009 RDE maps. DetailedProjections_WithUncertainty_RLM.xlsx – projected lightning density up to 2100 with uncertainty bands (±2 SD). projections_2100_ssp245/ssp585_*.* – maps and comparative metrics for projected lightning density in 2100. percentual_error_projections_ssp245/ssp585.xlsx – percentage error estimates based on uncertainty propagation. SenTrend_RLM_byScenario.xlsx – Sen’s slope trends and Mann–Kendall significance tests for each scenario. UncertaintySummary_RLM.xlsx – summary of uncertainty bands across zones and scenarios. raster_lightning_density_map_LIS.tif – lightning density map based on LIS climatology (used for zone definition). Access to raw data ERA5 data are publicly available from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (DOIs: 10.24381/cds.f17050d7; 10.24381/cds.6860a573). CMIP6 EC-Earth3-Veg model outputs are available from the Earth System Grid Federation (DOIs: 10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4882; 10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4914). WWLLN lightning data are available under licence from https://wwlln.net and are not redistributed here. LicenceProcessed data are shared under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC-BY 4.0) licence.