Supporting reintroduction planning: A framework integrating habitat suitability, connectivity and individual-based modelling. A case study with the Eurasian lynx in the Apennines

Aim: Reintroducing carnivores is a widely used approach to restore the
natural integrity of ecosystems. Species distribution models (SDMs) and
connectivity analyses are valuable tools for planning reintroductions and
identifying release sites but are rarely combined. We propose a new
framework combining SDMs, connectivity modelling and individual‐based
models (IBMs) to assess the feasibility of various reintroduction
scenarios. As a case study, we applied this framework to plan a potential
reintroduction of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to the Apennines by: (i)
assessing niche overlap between potential source and target populations;
(ii) integrating habitat suitability and connectivity to select release
sites and (iii) evaluating reintroduction outcomes through IBMs. Location:
Apennines, Peninsular Italy. Methods: We combined niche overlap analysis,
ensembles of fine‐tuned SDMs and circuit‐theory techniques to model
connectivity. Then, we integrated suitability and connectivity predictions
within a GIS environment to identify the optimal release sites under
different scenarios. Finally, we used IBMs to assess population viability,
site occupancy and dispersal. Results: Niche overlap suggested that the
Carpathian lynx populations may serve as a valid reintroduction source.
Integrating habitat and connectivity models highlighted the most
functional sites in the Central (CA) and Northern Apennines (NA). A
scenario with individuals released in both CA and NA did not outperform
the single‐area scenarios. Releasing individuals only in CA showed
long‐term feasibility but a higher risk of isolation, while release only
in NA would not result in viable populations in the long term, despite
closer proximity to suitable areas in the Alps. Main conclusions: Our
framework can help practitioners with integrating functional connectivity
within the selection of release sites for species reintroductions. We
recommend incorporating demography, as well as dispersal and settlement
phases, when evaluating reintroduction scenarios. This approach identifies
critical mortality areas, predicts population size, site occupancy and
connectivity and enhances decision‐making for successful reintroductions.