Harvest and natural predation shape selection for behavioral predictability in male wild turkeys

Previous research has shown that traits increasing prey detectability, such as using open areas, higher activity levels, and using areas frequented by hunters, reduce survival rates and are considered risk-taking behaviors. Despite extensive studies on how harvest-induced and natural selection impact average phenotypic expression, the influence of these factors on behavior predictability remains unclear. Using a double hierarchical generalized linear modeling framework, we assessed variation in both average behavioral expression and predictability in male wild turkeys (n = 108) and explored how it related to susceptibility to harvest and predation. Our analysis revealed individual variation in predictability linked to risk-taking and activity (Average speed—CVp = 0.28, 95% CrI = 0.23–0.33), with some males exhibiting more consistent behavior than others. We also identified a behavioral type–predictability syndrome, where riskier individuals were more predictable, and more active individuals were less predictable (Average speed—r = 0.71, 95% CrI = 0.59–0.81). Additionally, individuals became more predictable and occurred closer to risky areas during the hunting season, coinciding with peak mortality for male wild turkeys. Our data suggests harvest-induced and natural selection on both behavioral types and behavioral predictability. Riskier behavior types were more predictable in their behavioral expression and were more likely to be killed by both hunters and predators. We also found evidence that hunters selectively targeted individuals that were more active and unpredictable in their activity patterns, whereas predators preferentially targeted turkeys exhibiting less active, more predictable behaviors. Our findings suggest that adopting a cautious, sit-and-wait tactic may help male wild turkeys detect and avoid hunters, but may increase their vulnerability to predators that use a combination of visual and olfactory cues, along with area-restricted search behaviors, to locate prey.