Establishing a Bayesian approach to determining cosmogenic nuclide reference production rates using He-3 Earth and Planetary Science Letters

Production rates are a cornerstone of in situ cosmogenic nuclide applications, including surface exposure dating, erosion rate/denudation rate estimates, and burial dating. The most common approach for estimating production rates is to measure cosmogenic nuclide samples from sites with independently well-constrained exposure histories. In addition, while researchers attempt to minimize the effects of erosion through careful site and sample selection, it can be present at some unknown level in certain sites. We present a general Bayesian methodology for combining information from the nuclide concentrations, the exposure history, and the possibility of erosion, to determine the production rate at a given site. Then, we use another Bayesian approach to combine the results from the various sites.