GroundFallback: Frozen Held-Out Evaluation Evidence, Data, and Reproducibility Code for a Ground-Based ULF Spatial-Coherence Classifier

This reproducibility package contains the frozen evidence, derived data, software, audit records, and figure-generation materials supporting a pre-specified held-out evaluation of a ground-based ultralow-frequency (ULF) spatial-coherence classifier under simulated loss of upstream solar-wind information. The primary evaluation comprised 56 chronologically held-out geomagnetic events and 1,120 pre-specified 12-hour synthetic outage placements. Comparator definitions, the Rp threshold, weighting, inferential procedures, and multiplicity correction were frozen before held-out access. The archive includes the locked configuration, frozen development artifact, held-out input and split manifest, placement and scoring records, event-level contributions, attrition and audit outputs, reproducibility/QC code, and data and source code used to generate the manuscript figures. The reported confirmatory statistical results originate exclusively from the locked real-run evaluation; auxiliary QC and visualization scripts do not refit or modify the confirmatory analysis. This is a mixed-rights archive. CC BY 4.0 applies only to creator-owned material to the extent owned by the creator. Third-party material is not relicensed by the Zenodo record license. USGS-authored or USGS-produced source material retains its applicable U.S. Government/public-domain status; any third-party material incorporated into USGS products remains subject to its original rights. WDC Kyoto Dst-derived values remain subject to WDC Kyoto geomagnetic-index data-use rules. The Dst dataset should be cited using DOI 10.17593/14515-74000.