青藏高原高分辨CMIP6强迫数据（1979-2013，2015-2100）

经过降尺度和误差校正后的青藏高原范围内CMIP6气候模式数据，包括日降水、地表日最高和最低气温3个要素，涵盖气候模式历史期（1979-2013）和未来（2015-2100）SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585四种情景下的模拟结果。数据为NETCDF格式，时间分辨率为1天，水平空间分辨率为0.1°。可为青藏高原气候变化研究和评估提供支撑。
该数据集是以国际上现有公开的ACCESS-ESM1-5等7个CMIP6气候模式为基础，采用ANU-Spline统计插值降尺度，基于贝叶斯模型平均多模型集合预报，采用CNCDFm(改进分位数图法)方法对历史期和模型未来预测结果进行校正。详细过程可参阅参考文献。历史观测资料来自于CMFD和GPQM两个高分辨率历史气象数据集。校正后降水均值偏差小于0.2mm/d,气温均值偏差小于0.97℃，较原始模式结果有较大改善。

This dataset comprises downscaled and error-corrected CMIP6 climate model outputs over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, covering three core variables: daily precipitation, daily maximum surface air temperature, and daily minimum surface air temperature. It includes simulation results from both the historical period (1979–2013) and future projections (2015–2100) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. The data is stored in NETCDF format, with a temporal resolution of 1 day and a horizontal spatial resolution of 0.1°. This dataset provides valuable support for research and assessment of climate change over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

This dataset is developed based on 7 publicly available international CMIP6 climate models including ACCESS-ESM1-5. Downscaling was conducted using the ANU-Spline statistical interpolation method, followed by multi-model ensemble forecasting based on Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), and error correction for both historical period and future model projections was performed via the CNCDFm (modified quantile mapping) method. Detailed workflows can be found in the cited references. Historical observational data were obtained from two high-resolution historical meteorological datasets: CMFD and GPQM. After correction, the mean bias of precipitation is less than 0.2 mm/d, and the mean bias of air temperature is less than 0.97 °C, which represents substantial improvements compared to the raw CMIP6 model outputs.

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集是青藏高原地区的高分辨率CMIP6气候强迫数据，涵盖日降水、地表日最高和最低气温三个要素，时间跨度为历史期（1979-2013）和未来期（2015-2100）的四种SSP情景。数据经过降尺度和误差校正处理，空间分辨率为0.1°，校正后降水均值偏差小于0.2mm/d、气温均值偏差小于0.97℃，为青藏高原气候变化研究和评估提供支撑。