Sustainability risk assessment and governance in human-earth system: Concepts, methods and challenges

Sustainability of human-earth system has become a pivotal focus in global development research, with risk assessment and governance identified as key components and fundamental safeguards in the pursuit of sustainable development. This study begins by reviewing the conceptual definitions and classifications of risk, as well as general methods for risk assessment, early warning, and governance, to preliminarily explore the connotation of sustainability risk in human-earth system. Drawing on general risk assessment methodologies, this study constructs an integrated framework for evaluating sustainability risk in human-earth system, which incorporates both internal risks (e.g., stagnation or regression in meeting sustainable development goals) and external risks (e.g., disruptions from multiple stressors) through multi-method evaluations. Finally, based on the four key processes of traditional risk early warning systems, this study proposes a dynamic, graded technical system for early warning of sustainability risk in human-earth system and discusses a collaborative governance model underpinned by systems thinking. Overall, our study contributes to a deeper understanding of sustainability risk in human-earth system, offering theoretical support for improving governance capacities and promoting the co-evolution of regional sustainability and resilience.