Observationally constrained perturbed parameter ensemble of the zero emissions commitment with UVic ESCM v2.10: model output, parameter sets and source code

Simulation output from a ~340-member perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) version 2.10, used to derive observationally constrained probability distributions of the zero emissions commitment (ZEC). The ensemble samples 19 physical and biogeochemical parameters (ocean heat uptake, terrestrial and ocean carbon cycle feedbacks, vegetation-climate interactions, permafrost dynamics, and a climate-sensitivity scaling factor) and was screened against observational constraints by history matching with Gaussian-process emulators and an implausibility threshold (I>3). Experiments follow and extend the flat10MIP protocol: prescribed constant anthropogenic CO2 emissions at 5, 10 and 20 PgC/yr to cumulative budgets of 750, 1000, 1500 and 2000 PgC, followed by abrupt cessation - ten rate x budget emissions-cessation experiments in total. All runs are initialised from preindustrial control integrations in emissions-driven mode with spin-ups of at least 3000 years to minimise drift.