Decipher soil organic carbon dynamics and driving forces across China using machine learning

The dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) play a critical role in modulating global warming. However, the long-term spatiotemporal changes of SOC at large scale and the impacts of driving forces remain unclear. In this study, we investigated the dynamics of SOC in different soil layers across China through the 1980s to 2010s using a machine learning approach and quantified the impacts of the key factors based on factorial simulation experiments. Our results showed that the latest (2000-2014) SOC stock in the first meter soil (SOC100) was 80.68 ± 3.49 Pg C, of which 42.6% was stored in the top 20 cm, sequestrating carbon with a rate of 30.80 ± 12.37 g C m-2 yr-1 since the 1980s. Our experiments focusing on the recent two periods (2000s and 2010s) revealed that climate change exerted the largest relative contributions to SOC dynamics in both layers and warming or drying can result in SOC loss. However, the influence of climate change weakened with soil depth, while the opposite for vegeta...