THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL ENERGY MARKET TRANSFORMATION ON THE TRADE BALANCE OF PRIMARY COMMODITY EXPORTERS: EVIDENCE FROM BRICS+ COUNTRIES

This study examines the impacts of global energy market transformation and decarbonization pathways on the trade balances and exchange rates of resource-exporting nations within the expanded BRICS+ (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates) bloc. It delivers a comparative analysis contrasting the short-term and long-term structural implications of the energy transition on international trade linkages. To measure the pace of structural transition, the World Economic Forum's Energy Transition Index () was integrated alongside the Net Trade Terms () index to assess shifts in terms of trade. Utilizing quarterly panel data spanning 2005–2025 from the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (), and International Energy Agency (), a cointegrating regression tahlil was performed using a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag () framework via the Pooled Mean Group () estimator. The empirical findings indicate that while the energy transition yields a positive shock on trade balances in the short term, it triggers severe long-term currency depreciation and persistent trade deficits for primary commodity exporters. Finally, actionable policy matrixes are proposed to preserve foreign economic resilience in Uzbekistan.