Data_Sheet_1_Perceived risk for falls and decision-making in riding raised ramps in mountain biking: a pilot study.PDF

Mountain biking (MTB) is a challenging activity where riders face constant decisions on whether to attempt technical paths or features (e.g., wooden ramps and jumps) that pose risk for falls and injuries. Risk homeostasis theory posits that riders pursue an optimal non-zero level of risk that balances the rewards of attempting challenging features with the need to avoid unreasonable risk for injury. Little is known on how riders judge risk, and the level of risk that riders deem unacceptable. We conducted experiments with experienced MTB riders (n = 17) to examine how their willingness to ride raised wooden ramps depended on their perceived probability for falling (Pf) and their perceived probability for injury in the event of a fall (Pi) while riding the ramp. In one experiment, participants viewed ramps of varying widths and heights and described their willingness to ride each ramp, along with Pf and Pi. We found that Pf and Pi were independent predictors of willingness to attempt ramps. Moreover, the product Pf*Pi (the perceived risk for injury in attempting the ramp) was a stronger predictor than Pf or Pi alone. In a second experiment, participants viewed ramps of different widths, and reported the maximum (threshold) height where they would ride each ramp, along with Pf and Pi. We found that Pf*Pi at the threshold height, averaging 13%, did not vary with ramp width. We conclude that decisions on riding ramps are based on the product Pf*Pi. On average, riders refused to ride ramps when Pf*Pi exceeded 13%.

山地自行车（MTB）是一项充满挑战的运动，骑手在骑行过程中需不断作出决策，是尝试技术路径或特征（例如，木质坡道和跳跃）还是避免可能引发坠落和伤害的风险。风险稳态理论认为，骑手追求一种最优的非零风险水平，以平衡尝试挑战性特征所带来的回报与避免不合理风险导致伤害的需求。关于骑手如何判断风险以及他们认为不可接受的风险水平，目前所知甚少。我们针对经验丰富的MTB骑手（n=17）进行了实验，以探讨他们骑行升高木质坡道的意愿如何取决于他们感知的坠落概率（Pf）以及在骑行过程中发生坠落时的伤害概率（Pi）。在一次实验中，参与者观察了不同宽度和高度的坡道，并描述了他们骑行每座坡道的意愿，以及Pf和Pi。我们发现，Pf和Pi是尝试坡道意愿的独立预测因素。此外，Pf*Pi（尝试坡道时感知到的伤害风险）的乘积比Pf或Pi单独作为预测因素更为显著。在第二次实验中，参与者观察了不同宽度的坡道，并报告了他们愿意骑行每座坡道的最大（阈值）高度，以及Pf和Pi。我们发现，在阈值高度处，Pf*Pi的平均值为13%，且与坡道宽度无关。我们得出结论，骑行坡道的决策基于Pf*Pi的乘积。平均而言，当Pf*Pi超过13%时，骑手拒绝骑行坡道。