Dataset for Research

This study hypothesizes that underlying structural macroeconomic vulnerabilities—specifically Indonesia's twin deficits and institutional uncertainty surrounding the newly empowered Danantara sovereign wealth fund—leave the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) uniquely exposed to high-frequency global financial shocks compared to its ASEAN peers. Furthermore, the study hypothesizes that under such crisis conditions, traditional monetary defenses (such as widening interest rate differentials) fail to support the currency, constituting an empirical rejection of uncovered interest rate parity (UIP). Conversely, it is hypothesized that the structural policy frameworks of Malaysia and Singapore provide durable insulation against these same shocks. The provided dataset comprises a monthly macroeconomic panel spanning January 2021 to May 2026 for three ASEAN nations: Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. The raw data was gathered from publicly available central bank and macroeconomic databases, including Bank Indonesia, Bank Negara Malaysia, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, and standard global financial indices. The uploaded materials consist of three files: research.dta: The primary Stata dataset containing the full panel of macroeconomic variables, including bilateral exchange rates against the USD, the United States Dollar Index (DXY), interest rate differentials, and the structural shock dummy variable representing the Q2 2026 market event. Newey data.txt: A plain-text data subset specifically isolated and formatted for the individual time-series Newey-West Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent (HAC) standard error estimations. appendix A.txt: The comprehensive replication code outlining the step-by-step econometric procedures used in the study. Notable Findings and What the Data Shows The data clearly demonstrates an asymmetric currency fracture among the observed ASEAN nations in Q2 2026. Panel fixed-effects estimators (Driscoll and Kraay) and individual time-series (Newey-West) outputs show that the Indonesian Rupiah exhibited a highly significant reaction to the structural shock dummy (coefficient = 0.0108, p < 0.001) and marginal sensitivity to the USD Index. Crucially, the interest rate differential variable proved statistically powerless to explain the IDR's depreciation. In contrast, the data shows the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) displayed no measurable sensitivity to the same shock, while the Singapore Dollar's (SGD) response metrics indicate orderly central bank management rather than market disorder. How the Data Can Be Interpreted and Used The results should be interpreted as empirical evidence that reserve depletion and reactive interest rate defenses cannot substitute for proactive structural market architecture in emerging markets. The data highlights how Malaysia’s Dynamic Hedging Programme and Singapore’s nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) framework successfully insulate their currencies from the global financial cycle.