Replication data for: Do Treaties Matter? Exploiting Domestic Partisan Shifts to Separate Treaty Effects from Selection Effects

The question of whether treaties matter has long resisted an empirical verdict. A pattern of compliance by treaty signatories is what one would expect to see if treaties constrain state behavior or if states merely sign the treaties with which they would comply anyway. The two possibilities share the same observable implication. To resolve this problem, we ask a slightly different question which allows us to separate treaty effects from selection effects: When parties opposed to a treaty come to power in treaty signatories, are they more constrained to comply with treaty obligations than similar parties in non-signatories? To answer this question, we use a difference-in-differences model exploiting exogenous domestic political variation in state preferences for current account restriction. We find a substantively strong, albeit somewhat uncertain, constraining effect of international legal commitments. We interpret this as suggestive evidence that treaties do matter.