Verification of 1988-1989 Fall and Winter MOS/Perfect Prog Temperature Forecasts for Concord, New Hampshire

This study compares verification statistics for LFM-MOS and NGM-Perfect Prog temperature forecasts for Concord, New Hampshire for the three month period of November 1988 to January 1989 (the anomalous period), to data from the same three month period during the years of 1985-86 through 1987-88 (the base period). The statistical forecasts appeared to have had some problems during the anomalous period and these problems will be discussed in the following sections, as well as some of the reasons that may have caused these problems to occur.