Distribution range and richness of plant species are predicted to increase by 2100 due to a warmer and wetter climate in northern China

The warming global climate is threatening terrestrial ecosystem stability, including plant community structure and diversity. However, it remains unclear how distribution, richness and turnover of plant species are impacted by warming and wetting in northern China. In the present study, species distribution models were applied to predict the spatial distribution of 5,111 plant species based on 111,071 occurrence records in northern China. Additionally, variations in species richness and turnover rates were predicted for 2100 under three scenarios. The results indicated that approximately 70% of plant species will expand in their distribution, resulting in an increase in species richness. These changes will be driven mainly by temperature seasonality (TSN), annual precipitation (MAP), and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (MTCQ). However, about 30-40% of the species will face extinction risks, including a considerable number of endemic and Red-Listed species, and suitable habitat l..., , # Distribution range and richness of plant species are predicted to increase by 2100 due to a warmer and wetter climate in northern China.

Dataset DOI: [10.5061/dryad.zpc866tmp](10.5061/dryad.zpc866tmp)

## Description of the data and file structure

This dataset consists of a main folder, Datasets.zip, which contains three sub-folders, and descriptions of the files are mentioned in the README included within the folder.

**DataS1**: Environmental data (climate and land cover) corresponding to grid cells in northern China and species occurrence data.

Note: For species occurrence data, all geographic coordinates associated with these species have been generalized to protect sensitive plant species classified as Vulnerable, Critically Endangered, or Near Threatened according to the IUCN Red List. Specifically, latitude and longitude values have been rounded to one decimal place. This generalization was performed to minimize potential risks to species and comply with best practices for s...,