Remote sensing assessment of carbon balance vis-a-vis energy-related emissions and vegetation sequestration in a typical arid region of China from 2001 to 2020

Since 2000, the Western Development Strategy and warming-humidification of Northwest China have led to notable changes in Xinjiang’s carbon emissions and sequestration. Understanding the regional carbon budget is key to sustainable development. This study employed fused nighttime light data and statistical records to perform piecewise function fitting, effectively reflecting long-term trends in energy-related carbon emissions. Meanwhile, NDVI, land use, and meteorological data were integrated into the CASA model to accurately estimate the variations in vegetation carbon sequestration. Accordingly, we employed multi-source remote sensing data to model carbon emissions and sequestration, focusing on carbon balance changes in Xinjiang and its main cities with varying levels of economic development. Results show: (1) Emissions rose significantly, surpassing sequestration in 2012; (2) Emissions showed spatial shifts southward, while sequestration remained stable but expanded in area; (3) Regional rankings revealed significant spatial differentiation in carbon emissions and sequestration, with consistently rising emissions and limited sequestration gains at the city level, leading to a dominant carbon expenditure profile; (4) Precipitation-driven climate factors positively influenced sequestration, while GDP-driven human activities significantly increased both emissions and sequestration. This study offers a reliable spatial carbon balance estimation method to support regional carbon peak and neutrality goals.