ERS Research Models Future Effects of Climate Change on Corn and Soybean Yields, Production, and Exports

Since 1970, U.S. corn and soybean yields have doubled, but damaging effects of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods have slowed yield gains and interrupted decades of rapidly rising agricultural productivity. Such extreme weather events are expected to become more common, according to the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A recent study by USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) modeled how climate-linked changes in temperatures and precipitation, especially east of the 100th meridian where farms are predominantly rain-fed, might affect future U.S. corn and soybean yields and what that would mean for markets and trade through the middle of the next decade. Using 2016 as a base year, the model estimated an increase in U.S. corn yields but a decrease in soybean yields by the year of 2036. These changes also would affect exports of U.S. corn and soybeans. In the model, corn exports are projected to increase 0.36 percent by 2036, compared with 2016, while soybean exports drop 1.17 percent for a total decrease for the two crops of as much as $256 million by 2036.