Population assignment tests uncover rare long-distance larval dispersal events

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) is consequential to metapopulation ecology and evolution. In systems where dispersal is undertaken by small propagules, such as larvae in the ocean, documenting LDD is especially challenging. Genetic parentage analysis has gained traction as a method for measuring larval dispersal, but such studies are generally spatially limited, leaving LDD understudied in marine species. We addressed this knowledge gap by uncovering LDD with population assignment tests in the coral reef fish Elacatinus lori—a species whose short-distance dispersal has been well-characterized by parentage analysis. When adults (n = 931) collected throughout the species’ range were categorized into three source populations, assignment accuracy exceeded 99%, demonstrating low rates of connectivity between populations in the adult generation. After establishing high assignment confidence, we assigned settlers (n = 3,828) to source populations. Within the settler cohort, < 0.1% of individu...