Data from: Climate change-induced migration patterns and extinction risks of Theaceae species in China

Theaceae, an economically important angiosperm family, is widely
distributed in tropical and subtropical forests in Asia. In China,
Theaceae has particularly high abundances and endemism, comprising ~75% of
the total genera and ~46% of the total species worldwide. Therefore,
predicting the response of Theaceae species to climate change is vital. In
this study, we collected distribution data for 200 wild Theaceae species
in China, and predicted their distribution patterns under current and
future climactic conditions by species distribution modeling (SDM). We
revealed that Theaceae species richness is highest in southeastern China
and on Hainan Island, reaching its highest value (137 species) in Fujian
Province. According to the IUCN Red List criteria for assessing species
threat levels under two dispersal assumptions (no dispersal and full
dispersal), we evaluated the conservation status of all Theaceae species
by calculating loss of suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We
predicted that nine additional species will become threatened due to
climate change in the future; one species will be classified as critically
endangered (CR), two as endangered (EN), and six as vulnerable (VU). Given
their extinction risks associated with climate change, we recommended that
these species be added to the Red List. Our investigation of migration
patterns revealed regional differences in the number of emigrant,
immigrant, and persistent species, indicating the need for targeted
conservation strategies. Importantly, regions with high species turnover
are located on the northern border of the entire Theaceae species
distribution ranges owing to upwards migration; these regions are
considered most sensitive to climate change and conservation planning
should therefore be prioritized here. This study will contribute valuable
information for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on
Theaceae species, which will ultimately improve biodiversity conservation
efficiency