Temperature and land-use rates of change for populations of fast and slow species in the LPD

Human-induced environmental changes have a direct impact on species
populations, with some species experiencing declines while others display
population growth. Understanding why and how species populations respond
differently to environmental changes is fundamental to mitigate and
predict future biodiversity changes. Theoretically, species life-history
strategies are key determinants shaping the response of populations to
environmental impacts. Despite this, the association between species'
life-histories and the response of populations to environmental changes
has not been tested. In this study, we analysed the effects of recent
land-cover and temperature changes on rates of population change of 1,072
populations recorded in the Living Planet Database. We selected
populations with at least 5 yearly consecutive records (after imputation
of missing population estimates) between 1992 and 2016, and for which we
achieved high population imputation accuracy (in the cases where missing
values had to be imputed). These populations were distributed across 553
different locations and included 461 terrestrial amniote vertebrate
species (273 birds, 137 mammals, and 51 reptiles) with different
life-history strategies. We showed that populations of fast-lived species
inhabiting areas that have experienced recent expansion of cropland or
bare soil present positive population trends on average, whereas
slow-lived species display negative population trends. Although these
findings support previous hypotheses that fast-lived species are better
adapted to recover their populations after an environmental perturbation,
the sensitivity analysis revealed that model outcomes are strongly
influenced by the addition or exclusion of populations with extreme rates
of change. Therefore, the results should be interpreted with caution. With
climate and land-use changes likely to increase in the future,
establishing clear links between species characteristics and responses to
these threats is fundamental for designing and conducting conservation
actions. The results of this study can aid in evaluating population
sensitivity, assessing the likely conservation status of species with poor
data coverage, and predicting future scenarios of biodiversity change.