Winter Cold, Not Warming, Limits the Range of a Frost-Sensitive Semi-Mangrove: Thespesia populnea as a Species-Specific Test of Functional-Group Heterogeneity in Climate Response

Data and code accompanying the Scientific Reports manuscript "Winter Cold, Not Warming, Governs the Range of a Frost-Sensitive Semi-Mangrove: Thespesia populnea as a Species-Specific Test of Functional-Group Heterogeneity in Climate Response". The package contains: (1) occurrence records after spatial thinning to one record per 2.5 arc-min grid cell — 2,491 global records and the 47 Chinese records used to fit the China-focused MaxEnt model; (2) kuenm calibration output for 1,160 candidate models and the selected configuration (M_0.4_F_qp_Set_1: regularization multiplier 0.4, quadratic + product features); (3) response-curve data for Bio2, Bio4, Bio11 and Bio16; and (4) thirteen mean habitat-suitability-index (HSI) rasters (logistic output) for the current climate (1970-2000) and four future periods (2021-2100) under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 (BCC-CSM2-MR, CMIP6). Occurrence records derive from GBIF (doi:10.15468/dl.dsfha5), the Chinese Virtual Herbarium and the literature. Climate layers are from WorldClim 2.1 (2.5 arc-min); elevation from GEBCO.