Varying Political Responses to Job Loss? Examining the Contextual Dynamics of Political Mobilization and Withdrawal

In this study, we argue that whether job loss leads to political mobilization or withdrawal is contingent on the political context. We show that a mobilization response is more likely with selective forms of political participation, whereas withdrawal is the likely outcome when participation rates are high. To empirically test this argument, we conduct the first study of the impact of negative economic shocks on the likelihood of seeking political office, using longitudinal population data from Swedish registers. The results accord with our theoretical expectations. Individuals displaced during Sweden's severe 1990s economic crisis were notably more inclined to seek office after losing employment, especially high SES individuals. Conversely, the same shock reduced voter turnout, particularly among low SES individuals.