Experimental coral reef communities transform yet persist under mitigated future ocean warming and acidification

Coral reefs are among the most sensitive ecosystems affected by ocean warming and acidification, and are predicted to collapse over the next few decades. Reefs are predicted to shift from net accreting calcifier-dominated systems with exceptionally high biodiversity to net eroding algal-dominated systems with dramatically reduced biodiversity. Here we present a two-year experimental study examining the responses of entire mesocosm coral reef communities to warming (+2 C), acidification (-0.2 pH units), and combined future ocean (+2 C , -0.2 pH) treatments. Contrary to modelled projections, we show that under future ocean conditions, these communities shift structure and composition yet persist as novel calcifying ecosystems with high biodiversity. Our results suggest that if climate change is limited to Paris Climate Agreement targets, coral reefs could persist in an altered state rather than collapse. This submission includes 16S amplicon sequencing data from bacterioplankton in experimental mesocosms.