Technology access without impact? An evaluation of Ecuador’s input subsidy program for rice

In many developing economies, agricultural input subsidies are increasingly delivered through public-private partnerships (PPPs), yet rigorous impact evaluations remain scarce, especially in Latin America. This study assesses Ecuador’s Agricultural Input Kit (KIA) program, which distributed over 1 million subsidized packages of certified seeds, fertilizers, and agrochemicals to improve rice productivity and reduce production costs. The analysis draws on household survey data collected in two waves (2014/2015 and 2019/2020), conducted under institutional ethical approval, with written informed consent obtained in person from all participants. We estimate causal effects on adoption, yields, and costs using a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach with Propensity Score Matching (PSM). Results show a 37% increase in improved variety adoption among large farms, but no significant yield effects and an 18% decline in adoption among smallholders. These heterogeneous impacts reflect persistent constraints, including credit inaccessibility, a lack of irrigation, and weak extension systems. This study contributes to the limited evidence on input subsidy programs in Latin America’s rice sector and offers two key insights: first, PPPs require better targeting and integration with financial tools like microcredit; second, support services must be tailored to the structural barriers facing smallholder farmers to achieve equitable productivity gains.