CMIP6 models rarely simulate Antarctic winter sea-ice anomalies as large as observed in 2023

Contains processed data to create all figures and tables from the publication Diamond et al. (2024) CMIP6 models rarely simulate Antarctic winter sea-ice anomalies as large as observed in 2023; Geophysical Research Letters [Full reference available on publication]

Directory structure and associated contents listed below. Folders contain all data required to make corresponding figure, apart from where indicated. Full description of analysis in Diamond et al. (2024). Unless otherwise indicated, 'SIE' refers to August Antarctic SIE.

F1/

f1a_obs_ts.csv: Timeseries of 1979-2023 SIE

f1b_all_instances.csv: All instances (labelled by model, simulation, and simulation year) where an anomaly of magnitude SIE_2023 was detected. SIE timeseries from years -20 to +20 about each anomaly.

f1b_quartiles.csv: Upper and lower quartiles, mean, and median, computed over all instances.

F2/

F2_a.csv: 5--95% range of SIE variability dataset, for all model simulations, and observations.

F2_b.csv: T_aug23, computed using ECDFs, for all model simulations, and multi-model ensemble.

F2_c.csv: T_aug23, computed using GEVs, for all model simulations, and multi-model ensemble.

F3/

Data for all figures is already provided elsewhere:

F3a: for observations in SF3/SF3_obs_dataset.csv, and for simulations in SF3/SF3_simulations.csv.

F3b: for multi-model ensemble T_aug23 with associated errors in SF6/SF6_all.csv

F3c: for GEV_estimated T_aug23 for all simulations and models in SF6/SF6_all.csv; and  5--95% ranges of SIE variability datasets in F2/F2_a.csv

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SF1/

SF1_all.csv: SIE timeseries for all model simulations, and associated moving averages.

SF2/

sf2_all.csv: SIE decadal means and ranges for all model simulations.

sf2_quartiles.csv: taken over all simulations above - mean decadal mean in each bin; and lower quartile, median and upper quartile of the decadal ranges in each bin.

SF3/

SF3_obs_dataset.csv: SIE variability dataset for 1979-2023 observations.

SF3_simulations.csv: SIE variability datasets for all model simulations

SF4/

F4_a.csv: p_aug23, computed using ECDFs, for all model simulations, and multi-model ensemble.

F4_b.csv: p_aug22, computed using ECDFs, for all model simulations, and multi-model ensemble.

F4_c.csv: T_aug23, computed using GEVs, for all model simulations, and multi-model ensemble.

F4_d.csv: for all model simulations: p-value that simulation SIE variability dataset is drawn from same probability distribution as observations. Computed using Kolmogorov-Smirnoff 2-sample test.

SF5/

Data for both SF5a and b are already provided in F1/f1b_all_instances.csv.

SF6/

SF6_all.csv: for all model simulations, and multi-model ensemble, p_aug23 and T_aug23, with lower and upper errors (computed from 5--95% confidence interval using bootstrapping)

SF7/

Data for SF7a is already provided elsewhere: for observations in SF3/SF3_obs_dataset.csv, and for simulations in SF3/SF3_simulations.csv.

SF7_all.csv: as for SF6_all.csv, but instead using subset of models.