Influence of elite rotation on authoritarian resilience

This article proposes the use of the indicator of elite rotation to deepen the understanding of the phenomenon of authoritarian cooptation. The high frequency of changes in the ruling coalition can have a twofold effect on authoritarian regimes. On the one hand, it makes it possible to include new leaders in the ruling coalition in a timely fashion, remove potential opponents and maintain loyalty among the nobility. On the other hand, constant rotation creates a situation of high uncertainty and deprives some elites of access to previously received benefits. This study offers an empirical test of these assumptions: an analysis of all authoritarian regimes that existed between 1968 and 2010 (as well as all dictators who ruled between 1968 and 2008) leads to the conclusion that a low level of elite rotation generally contributes to the resilience of authoritarian regimes and leaders.