The Coupling Coordination Between Urban-Rural Integration Development and High-Quality Agricultural Development

Urban-rural integration and high-quality agricultural development complement each other and are mutually reinforcing. Optimizing their coordinated development can effectively tackle the challenge of the urban-rural dual structure, stimulate the vitality of rural development, and unleash the enormous potential of “1+1>2” synergy. Guided by the new development philosophy, this study focuses on 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2011 to 2023. It constructs a multidimensional indicator system and comprehensively employs a suite of quantitative research methods—including the entropy weight method, coupling coordination model, kernel density estimation, Moran's I, obstacle degree model, geodetector, and grey relational analysis—to systematically explore the coupled evolution characteristics, spatial distribution patterns, and core influencing factors of urban-rural integration and high-quality agricultural development. The main findings are as follows: ① During the study period, the national level of coupling coordination generally improved, but significant regional differentiation was observed, presenting a three-tier gradient pattern across eastern, central, and western China. Specifically, the eastern regions maintained a relatively high level of coupling coordination due to their advanced economic foundation and mature urban-rural interaction mechanisms, while the central regions showed steady growth but lagged behind the east, and the western regions remained at a relatively low level, reflecting the unbalanced development of urban-rural integration and high-quality agriculture across different regions. ② The overall trend of spatial agglomeration showed a weakening tendency, though it experienced a slight rebound during the epidemic. The eastern coastal areas remained stable “high-high” agglomeration zones, where the high level of urban-rural integration and high-quality agricultural development mutually promoted each other, forming a positive development cycle. In contrast, the “low-low” agglomeration zones in the western regions gradually shrank, indicating that the western regions had made certain progress in narrowing the development gap. Additionally, there existed a “high-low” isolated island phenomenon in the border areas between the central and eastern regions, where some areas with high development levels coexisted with neighboring low-level areas, failing to generate effective spillover or driving effects. ③ The restrictive factors were generally stable, though differences existed among some regions. Among these, high-quality agricultural development was identified as the primary restrictive factor. The key obstacle factors included agricultural product export dependence, non-agricultural employment ratio, and domestic patent application acceptance volume. Specifically, the low export dependence of agricultural products in some regions limited the integration of local agriculture into the global market; the unreasonable non-agricultural employment ratio affected the optimal allocation of rural labor resources; and the insufficient number of domestic patent applications restricted the technological innovation drive for high-quality agricultural development. ④ Through the cross-exploration of the obstacle degree model and geodetector, it was found that the non-agricultural employment ratio and domestic patent application acceptance volume possessed the dual attributes of “obstructiveness” and “driving force”, implying strong potential for synergistic driving. When these factors were reasonably regulated and optimized, they could transform from obstacle factors into important driving forces for coordinated development. The core driving factors included per capita GDP, urbanization rate, and the proportion of people covered by the minimum living security system in urban and rural areas. Furthermore, there was a significant interactive enhancement effect among these driving factors—their combined action had a more prominent impact on the coupled development of urban-rural integration and high-quality agricultural than their individual effects. Finally, in response to the regional differences, restrictive factors, and driving factors in the national coupled development, this study puts forward scientifically countermeasures and suggestions to further promote the coordinated and high-quality development of urban and rural areas in China.