Dataset of Spatial - Pattern Evolution of Rural Settlements in Tongzhou District, Beijing, 1961–2030

Dataset of Spatial–Pattern Evolution of Rural Settlements in Tongzhou District, Beijing, 1961–2030 Wei Song1*, Huanhuan Li2 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China 2. School of Geography and Tourism, Luoyang Normal University, Luoyang 471000, China * Corresponding author. E-mail address: [e-mail] (W. Song). Abstract: Based on a long-term series (1961–2015) of rural-settlement data for Tongzhou District, Beijing, this dataset integrates remote-sensing interpretation results, landscape-pattern metrics and 2030 simulation outputs to systematically reveal the size, spatial distribution and evolution of rural settlements. From 1961 to 2015 the number of settlement patches declined by 43.30 %, whereas total area increased by 146.64 % and patch shapes became continually more regular. The 2030 simulation indicates that diffuse expansion will dominate, adding about 40.25 km². The dataset can support rural-settlement planning, urban–rural land-use optimisation and new-type urbanisation policymaking. Keywords: rural settlements; spatial pattern; landscape metrics; LTM model; Tongzhou District 1 Data sources and processing 1.1 Basic data Table 1 Description of the basic datasets Data type Period Source Resolution/ accuracy Main purpose Rural-settlement RS data 1961 Declassified KeyHole imagery 2m Extract early settlement outlines Rural-settlement RS data 1980/2000/2015 Data Center for Resources & Environmental Sciences, CAS 30m Acquire mid- and late-term distributions Ancillary (population, GDP) 1980-2015 Tongzhou Statistical Yearbook, Beijing Statistical Yearbook Analyse driving forces Vector (roads, rivers, admin. boundaries) 2000/2015 Data Center for Resources & Environmental Sciences, CAS 30m Landscape analysis & simulation constraints 1.2 Processing methods (1) Quantity-change analysis Remote-sensing interpretation: Radiometric and geometric correction of 1961 KeyHole imagery (polynomial rectification against the 1980 land-use map); interpretation keys established; 2 m data resampled to 30 m and unified to GCS_Krasovsky_1940. Landscape metrics: Fragstats extracted NP, Mean Patch Size (MPS), etc.; ArcGIS computed Average Nearest-Neighbour Index (ANNI) and Kernel Density Estimation (KDE): (1) where D₀ is observed mean distance, Dₑ expected distance under randomness, A minimum enclosing-rectangle area. (2) where h is bandwidth, dᵢ distance from sample point to target. LTM simulation: Townships as basic units; six drivers (distance to water, town, railway, etc.); urban land & water as constraints; artificial-neural-network training (30 000 iterations per round); 2030 expansion simulated; accuracy assessed with Kappa. 2 Core results 2.1 Settlement-size change (1961–2015) Table 2 Settlement-size change in Tongzhou, 1961–2015 Metric 1961 1980 2000 2015 55-year change Number of patches(NP) 417 365 341 291 -43.30% Total area(TA,hm²) 9765.63 11061.85 13554.10 24086.39 +146.64% Mean patch size(MPS,hm²) 23.42 30.31 39.75 82.77 +253.42% Largest patch index(LPI) 2.32 2.35 5.69 5.42 +133.62% Landscape shape index(LSI) 34.79 26.26 25.31 24.40 -29.87% Mean shape index(SHAPE_MN) 1.79 1.44 1.47 1.62 -9.05% 2.2 Spatial-distribution characteristics ANNI: 1961 (0.9649), 1980 (1.005), 2000 (1.0001), 2015 (0.9637)—all ≈1, indicating random distribution throughout the 55 years. KDE peak (/km²): 1961 3.01, concentrated around old Tongzhou town (present Beiyuan, Zhongcang, Yuqiao sub-districts); 1980–2000 peak 2.34, “multi-core dispersion”; 2015 peak 3.44, concentrated at the junction of Lucheng, Xiji and Zhangjiawan towns and along main roads. Evolution modes (1961–2015): diffusion (outward expansion from existing patches, ~60 %) dominant; aggregation (small patches merging into large ones) evident in Songzhuang (1961–1980) and Yongshun (1980–2000); extinction (conversion to urban land) mainly around urban fringes (e.g., Beiyuan sub-district 1961–1980). 2.3 2030 expansion simulation Table 3 Key characteristics of 2030 settlement-expansion simulation Parameter Value Key feature Projected rural population 2030 530 000 Referenced from Beijing Master Plan (2016–2030) Predicted expansion area 40.25km² Estimated by population–land coefficient Overall simulation accuracy 53.90% Kappa validation; township-scale 41 %–60 %Kappa Dominant expansion mode Diffusion 90 % Outward growth from current patches No-/low-expansion zones Eastern Xiji, southeastern Huoxian Far from town centres Priority expansion areas Songzhuang, Lucheng, Huoxian Clustering along Jingshen Expressway & 6th Ring Road 3 Data notes and applications 3.1 Limitations 1961 data after resampling show ~0.18 % area bias, possibly causing minor error in early settlement-size estimates; simulation does not account for sudden policies (e.g., new ecological red-lines), so 2030 results should be updated with latest planning adjustments. 3.2 Application directions Planning practice: provides evidence for “shrinking & quality-improvement” strategies, e.g., prioritising integration of low-density, small settlements; Policy analysis: supports evaluation of new-type urbanisation policies, e.g., quantifies cultivated land expected to be occupied (≈35 km², 2015–2030); Academic research: offers a long-term baseline for investigating driving mechanisms, enabling multi-factor regression with population and economic data.