Supplemental Figure 7

Model selection and parameter estimation in temperature- dependent trees under various spline smoothings in the fitted model. (a) Plots of temperature curve splines smoothed by different degrees of freedom. The time-series of temperature data are shown in grey dots and the smoothed curves in black lines. (b,c) Parameter estimates for trees simulated with an exponential dependency of speciation on temperature (b, λ = 0.2e0.05·T(t); C, λ = 0.3e−0.05·T(t)) with temperature curves determined using generalized cross-validation (degrees of freedom=208), where the fitted temperature-dependent models have temperature curve splines smoothed by different degrees of freedom. Simulated parameters are marked by dashed red lines. (d) The percentage of temperature-dependent trees, simulated with a temperature curve determined using generalized cross-validation, best sup- ported by models fit with temperature curve splines smoothed by different degrees of freedom versus constant-rate models and time-dependent models with an exponential dependence on speciation.