CHIRPS-GEFS

CHIRPS-GEFS is an operational data set that provides daily bias-corrected forecasts for next 5-day to ~15-day precipitation totals and anomalies at a quasi-global 50-deg N to 50-deg S extent and 0.05-degree resolution. These are based on National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) version 12 forecasts. CHIRPS-GEFS forecasts are compatible with the Climate Hazards center InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data, which are actively used for drought monitoring, early warning, and near real-time historical impact assessments. A rank-based quantile-quantile matching procedure is used to transform GEFSv12 “reforecast” and “real-time” forecast ensemble means to CHIRPS spatial-temporal characteristics. Matching distributions to CHIRPS makes forecasts better reflect local climatology at finer spatial resolution and reduces moderate-to-large forecast errors. As shown in this study, having a CHIRPS-compatible version of the latest generation of NCEP GEFS forecasts enables rapid assessment of current forecasts and local historical context. CHIRPS-GEFS effectively bridges the gap between observations and weather predictions, increasing the value of both by connecting monitoring resources (CHIRPS) with interoperable forecasts.