Early Identification of the Serious Habitual Juvenile Offender Using a Birth Cohort in Philadelphia, 1958-1984

Beginning in the mid-1980s, the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (OJJDP) funded the creation of Habitual Offender Units (HOUs) in 13 cities. HOUs were created to prosecute habitual juvenile offenders by deploying the most experienced attorneys to handle these cases from start to finish. By targeting the earliest points in the career sequence of the juvenile offenders, the greatest number of serious offenses can potentially be averted. Selection criteria to qualify for priority prosecution by an HOU usually encompassed one or more generic components relating to aspects of a juvenile's present and prior offense record. In Philadelphia, to be designated a serious habitual offender and to qualify for priority prosecution by the HOU, a youth had to have two or more prior adjudications or open cases for specific felonies, as well as a current arrest for a specified felony. The first three police contacts in a Philadelphia juvenile offender's record were of special interest because they included the earliest point (i.e., the third contact) at which a youth could be prosecuted in the Philadelphia HOU, under their selection criteria. The main objectives of this study were to determine how well the selection criteria identified serious habitual offenders and which variables, reflecting HOU selection criteria, criminal histories, and personal characteristics, were most strongly and consistently related to the frequency and seriousness of future juvenile and young adult offending. To accomplish this, an assessment was conducted using a group of juveniles born in 1958 whose criminal career outcomes were already known. Applying the HOU selection criteria to this group made it possible to determine the extent to which the criteria identified future habitual offending. Data for the analyses were obtained from a birth cohort of Black and white males born in 1958 who resided in Philadelphia from their 10th through their 18th birthdays. Criminal careers represent police contacts for the juvenile years and arrests for the young adult years, for which police contacts and arrests are synonymous. The 40 dependent variables were computed using 5 different criminal career aspects for 4 crime type groups for 2 age intervals. The data also contain various dummy variables related to prior offenses, including type of offense, number of prior offenses, disposition of the offenses, age at first prior offense, seriousness of first prior offense, weapon used, and whether it was a gang-related offense. Dummy variables pertaining to the current offenses include type of offense, number of crime categories, number of charges, number of offenders, gender, race, and age of offenders, type of intimidation used, weapons used, number of crime victims, gender, race, and age of victims, type of injury to victim, type of victimization, characteristics of offense site, type of complainant, and police response. Percentile of the offender's socioeconomic status is also provided. Continuous variables include age at first prior offense, age at most recent prior offense, age at current offense, and average age of victims.

自20世纪80年代中期起，青少年司法与犯罪预防办公室（OJJDP）资助在13个城市创建了惯犯单位（HOUs）。HOUs的设立旨在通过派遣经验丰富的律师从案件开始到结束全程处理，以起诉惯犯青少年。通过针对青少年犯罪者职业生涯的早期阶段，可以最大限度地避免严重的犯罪行为。符合HOUs优先起诉资格的选拔标准通常包括一个或多个与青少年当前及既往犯罪记录相关的通用组成部分。在费城，若被认定为严重惯犯并符合HOUs优先起诉资格，青少年必须拥有两个或以上针对特定重罪的既往裁决或未结案件，以及针对特定重罪的当前逮捕。费城青少年犯罪者记录中的前三项警察接触情况特别值得关注，因为这些情况包括了青少年在费城HOUs下可被起诉的最早时刻（即第三次接触）。本研究的主要目标是确定选拔标准在识别严重惯犯方面的有效性，以及哪些变量，包括HOUs选拔标准、犯罪历史和个人特征，与未来青少年和年轻成年人的犯罪频率和严重性最为紧密和一致地相关。为实现这一目标，本研究对1958年出生的一群青少年进行了评估，其犯罪生涯的结果已经可知。将HOUs选拔标准应用于这一群体，使得确定标准在多大程度上识别了未来的惯犯行为成为可能。分析所需数据来源于1958年出生、在费城从10岁至18岁居住的黑白男性出生队列。犯罪生涯代表了青少年时期的警察接触情况以及年轻成年时期的逮捕情况，其中警察接触和逮捕同义。40个依赖变量是通过5种不同的犯罪生涯方面，针对4个犯罪类型群体和2个年龄间隔计算得出的。数据还包括与既往犯罪相关的各种虚拟变量，包括犯罪类型、既往犯罪数量、犯罪处理方式、首次既往犯罪时的年龄、首次既往犯罪的严重性、使用的武器以及是否为帮派相关犯罪。与当前犯罪相关的虚拟变量包括犯罪类型、犯罪类别数量、指控数量、犯罪者数量、性别、种族和犯罪者年龄、使用的恐吓方式、使用的武器、犯罪受害者数量、性别、种族和受害者年龄、受害者所受伤害类型、受害者受侵害类型、犯罪现场特征、投诉人类型和警方反应。还提供了犯罪者社会经济地位的百分位数。连续变量包括首次既往犯罪时的年龄、最近一次既往犯罪时的年龄、当前犯罪时的年龄和受害者平均年龄。