Risk assessment of work resumption amid Covid-19 in Beijing

Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is a new strain of coronavirus first identified in Wuhan, China. As the virus has spread worldwide, China has reduced transmission at a considerable social and economic cost. To minimize the harm to society caused by the lockdown, resuming work safely post-pandemic is a major issue. As the capital of China, Beijing hosts many residents and workers with origins elsewhere, making it a high-risk region in which to resume work. To avoid a second significant outbreak of COVID-19, we simulate the evolution of the pandemic under different stages of resuming work. The transmission model is developed from a modified SEIR model for SARS tailored to the situation of Beijing with the involvement of multi-source data. Because of the strong heterogeneity of population, socio-economic factors and medical capacity of Beijing, the risk assessment is produced spatiotemporally with respect to each district of Beijing. The result suggests that resuming work step by step in Beijing would not bring about a recurrence of the pandemic. However, at different stages of resuming work, special attention should be paid to different parts in Beijing. The proposed relevant pandemic-prevention measures will provide valuable insights for other cities or regions dealing with the outbreak of COVID-19.