Determinants of agricultural output in Somalia: the roles of rainfall, land use, employment, and domestic investment

This study examines the determinants of agricultural output in Somalia, with a focus on agricultural output as the dependent variable. Agriculture is a cornerstone of Somalia’s economy, contributing significantly to GDP, employment, and food security. Despite its importance, the sector faces numerous challenges, including recurrent droughts, climate variability, political instability, and limited domestic investment, which hinder productivity and sustainable development. Understanding the determinants of agricultural output is crucial for addressing these challenges and ensuring food security in fragile contexts, such as Somalia. The analysis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the relationships between agricultural output and key independent variables: agricultural employment, rainfall, land under cereal production, and domestic investment. Data from 1990 to 2021 were sourced from the World Bank and SESRIC. The ARDL model was chosen for its ability to capture both short-term and long-term dynamics in the data. Our findings indicate that employment in agriculture, rainfall, and domestic investment have a significant positive impact on agricultural output in both the short and long run. At the same time, land used for cereal production shows a more substantial influence in the short term, with a negative impact on agricultural output. These results underscore the importance of targeted agricultural policies and investments in enhancing productivity and ensuring food security in Somalia. The study’s insights contribute to the broader understanding of agricultural development in fragile contexts and provide a basis for future research and policy formulation.