Comparison between observed and predicted discharges and peaks of Fusarium graminearum ascospores in North Italy in 2012 to 2014.

1 Ascospores were sampled with a volumetric spore sampler from the air above maize stalk residues bearing mature F. graminearum perithecia.2 Rain ≥ 0.2 mm/day; vapor pressure deficit VPD ≤ 11 hPa for discharges; VPD ≤ 6.35 hPa for peaks.3 TPP = True Positive Proportion (sensitivity); FNP = False Negative Proportion; FPP = False Positive Proportion; TNP = True Negative Proportion (specificity)4 Peaks are defined as days with ≥ 30 ascospores / m3 air.Predictions were based on rain alone or rain and vapor pressure deficit.