Initiator conditions and the diffusion of digital trade-related provisions in PTAs

Digital trade has become an important driver of global commerce and accounts for an increasing share of many countries’ economies. While progress in digital trade-related discussions at the World Trade Organization has been limited until fairly recently, the topic has gradually been gaining importance in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) since the early 2000s. As we also observe that digital trade governance has become increasingly politicized, we know little about these provisions’ origins and diffusion in PTAs. This research note discusses novel data and analyzes 91 digital trade-related provisions and 347 trade agreements signed between 2000 and 2019. In this note, we focus primarily on the initiator conditions and how these might lead to differences in diffusion patterns. We find that almost half of digital trade-related provisions were initially introduced by PTAs in which the United States was a signatory. Using negative binomial regressions, we find no evidence, however, that these provisions diffuse relatively more often than provisions first introduced by other countries. Our analysis shows that the diffusion of digital trade-related provisions is influenced by original trade interests and the existence of domestic digital policies at the initiator stage. Interestingly, we find that the initial degree of legalization of the provisions themselves matters for a more substantial diffusion, which contradicts the established view that soft law provisions are the preferred approach for new trade topics. This research note highlights the need to factor in the extent to which new international law obligations are adopted through the treaty networks as a result of initiator conditions addressing a certain blind spot in the diffusion literature. By focusing on the initiating states, we also speak to the literature on how international agreements serve to diffuse leading states’ preferred policy options.

数字贸易（Digital trade）已成为全球商贸的核心驱动力之一，在诸多国家经济中的占比亦持续攀升。尽管直至近年，世界贸易组织（World Trade Organization，WTO）框架下与数字贸易相关的磋商进展仍相对有限，但自21世纪初起，数字贸易议题在优惠贸易协定（preferential trade agreements, PTAs）中的重要性已逐步凸显。尽管我们观察到数字贸易治理的政治化倾向日益加剧，但当前学界对这类条款在优惠贸易协定中的起源与扩散路径仍缺乏深入认知。本研究简报介绍了全新构建的数据集，并对2000年至2019年间签署的91项数字贸易相关条款与347项贸易协定展开了实证分析。本简报中，我们主要聚焦于条款的发起国条件，以及此类条件如何塑造差异化的扩散模式。研究结果显示，近半数数字贸易相关条款最初由以美国为缔约方的优惠贸易协定所引入。不过通过负二项回归（negative binomial regressions）模型分析，我们并未发现证据表明，此类条款的扩散频率相对其他国家首次引入的条款更高。分析结果表明，数字贸易相关条款的扩散受到发起国初始贸易利益与国内数字政策存在情况的影响。值得注意的是，我们发现条款本身的初始法律化程度对其大规模扩散具有显著影响，这与“软法（soft law）条款是新兴贸易议题的首选方案”这一主流观点相悖。本研究简报强调，我们需要考虑到：发起国条件会推动新的国际法义务通过条约网络被采纳，这一视角弥补了扩散研究文献中的一处关键空白。通过聚焦发起国，本研究亦呼应了有关国际协定如何扩散主导国家偏好政策方案的相关研究文献。

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集研究了数字贸易相关条款在优惠贸易协定（PTAs）中的扩散过程，特别关注发起国条件对扩散模式的影响。数据集包含2000年至2019年间签署的347个贸易协定中的91个数字贸易条款，分析发现美国是近一半条款的初始引入者，但扩散速度并不更快，且条款的法律化程度对扩散有显著影响。