Association between local-level resources for home care and home deaths: A nationwide spatial analysis in Japan

Aim
Little is known about whether and how local-level resources regarding home care are associated with the prevalence of home deaths. We aimed to investigate whether geographic patterns of the resources for home care were associated with the prevalence of home deaths, taking spatial variation into consideration.
Methods
We conducted an ecological cross-sectional study in Japan using nationwide data in 2014. The areal unit was the municipality, the smallest administrative unit in Japan. We investigated the association between the percentage of home deaths and the resources of home care support clinics with available 24-hour-a-day functions, considering the geographic effect of neighboring municipalities by applying a geographically weighted regression model.
Results
The mean and standard deviation of the percentages of home deaths were 11.4% (5.0%), and those of the number of home care support clinics per 10,000 elderly population were 3.4 (3.7). The percentages of home deaths in neighboring municipalities tended to be significantly correlated (Moran’s I 0.34, p<0.001). Adjusting for the number of hospital beds, total population, and the socio-economic status of municipality, the results of an ordinary least squares regression model showed a positive correlation between the percentage of home deaths and the local resources for home care support clinics per 10,000 elderly population (regression coefficient 0.15, 95% confidence interval 0.07, 0.22), while the existence of spatial autocorrelation of the residual was suggested (Moran’s I of the residual 0.227, p<0.001). The geographically weighted regression model showed local regression coefficients varying across municipalities with a better model fit over the analogous ordinary least squares model (adjusted R2 0.414 vs. 0.131).
Conclusion
Home deaths were more prevalent in municipalities with greater home care resources. This association was geographically varied and further strengthened in some areas.