Malaria Records from Panama 2019-2024

This repository contains a detailed list of data sources employed in the manuscript "Economic sanctions and the human motion behind malaria resurgence ". S1.1 Data Sources Data Used for Source, Methods and access Confirmed total malaria cases, monthly, January 2019 to July 2025 Figure 1A; time-series models Epidemiology Department, Ministry of Health (MINSA). Case classification (autochthonous, introduced, induced, imported, relapse, recrudescence, unclassified) by health region Confirmed total malaria cases, monthly. Confirmed cases by health region, 2019–2024 MINSA malaria report of epidemiological week 13, 2024 (tables for 2019–2023), and the Vector Control bulletin of week 52, 2024. Confirmed total local malaria cases, monthly, January 2019 to July 2025 Figure 1A; Time series models See Section S1.2 Migrants entering Panama, monthly Figure 1B; time-series models Servicio Nacional de Migración, Panamá. https://www.migracion.gob.pa/estadisticas Niño 4 sea surface temperature anomaly, monthly Figure 1C; time-series models NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Niño 4 index computed by CPC from ERSST V5 (file downloaded April 2026): https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/month/DS/Nino4_CPC/. For further details, see Section S1.2 Confirmed cases geolocated by village (“Control de Vectores dataset”), 2019–2024 Figure 2B; Video S1; Lee’s L Vector Control Department, MINSA. Not public, it contains geolocations. Confirmed cases by health region, 2019–2024 The epidemiology dataset; Figure 2C MINSA weekly malaria reports and Vector Control bulletins. Total cases are presented in: cases_by_region_year.csv Local only cases (removing imported, relapses and recrudescences) in: local_cases_by_region_year.csv . A quotation of each source table is in: malaria_by_region_year.csv. The reports are listed at https://www.minsa.gob.pa/informacion-salud/malaria-1. For further details, see Section S1.2 Multidimensional poverty by province, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022 Figure 2C; Lee’s L by province Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas, Índice de Pobreza Multidimensional Panamá 2025 (2026). https://www.mef.gob.pa/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Informe-del-Indice-de-Pobreza-Multidimensional-de-Panama2025.pdf For further details, see Section S1.2 Multidimensional poverty by corregimiento (IPM-C 2023) Figure S2; Lee’s L by corregimiento Gabinete Social and INEC, Informe de pobreza multidimensional a nivel de corregimientos (2024), annexes 2–14: https://www.gabinetesocial.gob.pa/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Informe-IPM-Corregimientos-2023.pdf. For further details, see Section S1.2 Population and self-identified indigenous population by corregimiento, 2023 census Figure 2A INEC, 2023 Population and Housing Census, through the Esri Living Atlas service Censo_Poblacion_Corregimiento_Panama_2023: https://ags.esri.co/arcgis/rest/services/PanamaLivingAtlas/Censo_Poblacion_Corregimiento_Panama_2023/MapServer Corregimiento boundaries, 2024 Figure 2A; the epidemiology dataset Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute GIS Portal, Panama Corregimientos Boundaries 2024: https://stridata-si.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/33262847f3a442ae90cf303d1d8a08cf Provinces and comarcas Figure 2; Video S1 Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas de Estudios de la Salud. Available upon request. Pan-American Highway, primary roads Figure 2; Video S1 Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute GIS Portal, Panama Road Network (OpenStreetMap-derived) 2019: https://stridata-si.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd8a5fe5524a466cad3c584d6375a72f Tropical moist forest and its changes, 2025 Figure 2A European Commission Joint Research Centre, Tropical Moist Forest dataset v1_2025 (transition map, subtypes), https://forobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu/TMF, read from the cloud-optimized copy at https://data.source.coop/epoch/jrc-tmf/ Cultivated and natural grassland, 2024 Figure 2A Global Pasture Watch, grassland class map v2 (30 m, 2024), https://s3.eu-central-1.wasabisys.com/arco/gpw_grassland_rf.med.filt.bthr_c_30m_20240101_20241231_go_epsg.4326_v2.tif Land cover, 2021 Figure 2A ESA WorldCover 10 m 2021 v200, https://esa-worldcover.org (AWS open data) Planted trees (banana, oil palm, other) Figure 2A World Resources Institute, Spatial Database of Planted Trees v2 (Richter et al. 2024), https://gfw2-data.s3.amazonaws.com/plantations/sdpt/sdpt_v2_v11282023_public.gdb.zip (CC BY 4.0) Relief Figure 2A Copernicus GLO-90 digital surface model, https://registry.opendata.aws/copernicus-dem/ Indigenous reserves (resguardos) and Afro-Colombian collective lands, Colombia Figure 2A Agencia Nacional de Tierras, open data hub (Resguardo Indígena Formalizado; Consejo Comunitario Titulado), https://data-agenciadetierras.opendata.arcgis.com (CC BY-SA 4.0) Country and department boundaries, Colombia and Costa Rica Figure 2 geoBoundaries, https://www.geoboundaries.org Highway beyond Panama (Costa Rica ruta 2, Colombia ruta 62) Figure 2 OpenStreetMap contributors, https://www.openstreetmap.org (ODbL) Land mask for the locator inset (sea versus land) Figure 2A Natural Earth 1:50m land, https://www.naturalearthdata.com All remote rasters were read in windows, at the resolution the figure needs, by HTTP range requests on cloud-optimized files. No global file was downloaded. S1.2 Additional methodological considerations Confirmed total local malaria cases, monthly, January 2019 to July 2025 Corrected version of total cases, where data are multiplied by a correction factor consisting of total cases minus imported cases, recrudescences and relapses, divided by the total number of cases. The cases without an assigned origin were not considered when calculating the correction factor. The correction factor was annual, as epidemiology reports only included case classifications for annual data. Confirmed cases by health region, 2019–2024 Data for Panamá Metro, Panamá Norte and San Miguelito health regions were added with the records for Panamá Este, as they belong the same geopolitical unit, Panamá province. The data for the Darién health region were split between Darién Province and Comarca Emberá. This split was done following data published in 20211 that assigned cases to foci that can be geolocated in Comarca Emberá and Darién Province. Cases for 2019-2020 and 2024 outside of the endemic regions were approximated, as they were combined in the MINSA reports. For the approximation the total number of cases for 2019-2020 and 2024 for the regions reported as non-endemic were assigned in proportion to the cases reported for those regions in 2021-2023. The files malaria_by_region_year_csv, region_totals.csv and malaria_by_region_year.csv were created by Claude (Opus 5.5). Niño 4 sea surface temperature anomaly, monthly An index of the El Niño Southern Oscillation that is based on sea surface temperature changes measured in the region enclosed within latitude 5° N – 5° S, and longitude 160° E – 150° W2 Multidimensional poverty For Provinces, this index is an average based on data collected during the annual household surveys from 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022. For Corregimientos, the index used data from the 2023 national census. The index has a percentual scale and it is a composite measure of unsatisfied material, health and educational needs of populations estimated by the Panamanian Ministry of Economics and Finance3, based on the methods by Alkire and Foster4 to measure multidimensional poverty.. References 1. MINSA, CSS, PAHO. Guía de Abordaje Integral para la Eliminación de la Malaria en la República de Panamá. Panamá, 2021. 2. NOAA. Niño 4 SST Index from the NOAA ERSST V6. 2026. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/month/DS/Nino4_CPC/ (accessed 9/22/2026 2026). 3. Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas. ÍNDICE DE POBREZA MULTIDIMENSIONAL PANAMÁ 2025. Panama: Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas, 2026. 4. Alkire S, Foster J. Understandings and misunderstandings of multidimensional poverty measurement. The Journal of Economic Inequality 2011; 9(2): 289-314. NOTE: This document and the excel files were created with help from Claude (Opus 5.5 and Fable 5.1)