DataSheet1_Uncertainty quantification in the techno-economic analysis of emission reduction technologies: a tutorial case study on CO2 mineralization.pdf

The pathways toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 should be designed based on solid scientific evidence. Ex ante system analysis tools, such as techno-economic assessments (TEAs), are key instruments to guide decision-makers. As ex ante TEAs of CO2 mitigation technologies embody a high level of uncertainty, the informed use of uncertainty analysis becomes crucial for meaningful interpretation and communication of TEA outputs. To foster enhanced appreciation and the use of uncertainty analysis, we compare multiple uncertainty analysis methods for ex ante TEAs, using a case study on CO2 mineralization in the cement industry. We show that local sensitivity analysis tools such as one-way analysis, which are most often used by TEA practitioners, may not suffice for deriving reliable conclusions and provide guidance on how to apply global sensitivity analysis methods, such as variance-based indicators for TEAs in this field.

至2050年实现净零温室气体排放的路径设计应基于坚实的科学证据。事前系统分析工具，如技术经济评估（TEA），是引导决策者的关键工具。鉴于事前TEA的二氧化碳减排技术蕴含着较高程度的不确定性，对不确定性分析的有意识运用对于TEA输出的意义解读与沟通变得至关重要。为了促进对不确定性分析之深度理解和应用，本研究对比了多种不确定性分析方法，以水泥工业中二氧化碳矿化的事例研究为案例。我们发现，如单向分析等在TEA从业者中最常使用的局部敏感性分析工具可能不足以得出可靠的结论，并就如何应用全局敏感性分析方法，如基于变异指标的TEA在此领域的应用提供了指导。