Replication code and data for "Trading Below the Final Payout: Evidence from a Sports Prediction Market"

This archive accompanies the article "Trading Below the Final Payout: Evidence from a Sports Prediction Market" (Ivailo Petrov and Matt Davison, Western University). The article counts, for 5,714 contract determinations in 819 Major League Baseball games between June and August 2026, the gap between trade prices below 97 cents and the realized one-dollar payout, for trades in the fifteen minutes after the play-end timestamp kept in MLB's final game record. The archive holds the analysis code, the scripts that retrieve the Kalshi and MLB records, the derived per-determination table the article was computed from, the MLB play table, the LaTeX source, and the exact commands. The raw Kalshi trade and candle records and the raw MLB feeds are not included; the retrieval scripts fetch them from the public interfaces, if those still serve the window. Version 2.0 matches the submitted article; version 1.0 accompanied an earlier draft under a different title.