Potential adaptability of marine turtles to climate change may be hindered by coastal development in the USA

Marine turtles may respond to projected climatic changes by shifting their
nesting range to climatically suitable areas, which may result in either
increased exposure to threats or fewer threats. Therefore, there is a need
to identify whether the habitat predicted to be climatically
suitable for marine turtle nesting in the future will be affected by
future threats and hinder marine turtles’ ability to adapt. We modelled
the geographic distribution of climatically suitable nesting habitat for
marine turtles in the USA under future climate scenarios, identified
potential range shifts by 2050, determined impacts from sea-level rise,
and explored changes in exposure to coastal development as a result of
range shifts. Overall nesting ranges of marine turtle species were not
predicted to change between the current and future time periods, except
for the northern nesting boundaries for loggerhead turtles. However,
declines in climatically suitable nesting grounds were predicted;
loggerhead turtles will experience the highest decreases (10%) in
climatically suitable habitat followed by green (7%) and leatherback (1%)
turtles. However, sea-level rise is projected to inundate 78–81% of
current habitat predicted to be climatically suitable in the future,
depending on species and scenario. Nevertheless, new beaches will also
form, and suitable nesting habitat could be gained, with leatherback
turtles potentially experiencing the biggest percentage gain in suitable
habitat.