Data and R Code for: "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Bilateral Trade Balance between Peru and the United States: VECM Evidence and Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation, 2015–2024"

This repository contains the monthly time-series data (January 2015–December 2024) and the R code used to estimate the vector error-correction model (VECM, K = 5, r = 1) analyzing the dynamic relationship between the nominal exchange rate (NER) and the bilateral real exchange rate index (BRER) between Peru and the United States. It also includes the bilateral trade (exports, imports, and mineral export) series, the 24-month short-term forecasts (2025-2026), and the R scripts required to reproduce the stationarity tests, Johansen cointegration test, VECM estimation, Granger causality tests, impulse response functions, forecast error variance decomposition, and forecast plots reported in the article. Source data were compiled from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), the National Superintendence of Customs and Tax Administration (SUNAT), and the U.S. Census Bureau. This dataset accompanies the article submitted to Sustainability (MDPI); see the Related identifiers field for the published DOI once assigned. This research was funded by Universidad Cesar Vallejo, Peru, through its Vicerrectorado de Investigacion. Version 1.1 accompanies the first-round revision of the article (Economies, MDPI, manuscript economies-4606026). It adds the out-of-sample evaluation of the VECM forecasts (January 2025–September 2026), robustness checks for identification and structural breaks, a complementary trade model, an analysis of the drivers of the 2025–2026 appreciation of the sol, and a daily event study, together with bilateral trade data updated to the latest SUNAT vintage.