Not all surveillance data are created equal – a multi‐method dynamic occupancy approach to determine rabies elimination from wildlife

1. A necessary component of elimination programs for wildlife disease is effective surveillance. The ability to distinguish between disease freedom and non‐detection can mean the difference between a successful elimination campaign and new epizootics. Understanding the contribution of different surveillance methods helps to optimize and better allocate effort and develop more effective surveillance programs.

2.We evaluated the probability of rabies virus elimination (disease freedom) in an enzootic area with active management using dynamic occupancy modeling of 10 years of raccoon rabies virus (RABV) surveillance data (2006‐2015) collected from three states in the eastern USA. We estimated detection probability of RABV cases for each surveillance method (e.g., strange acting reports, road‐kill, surveillance‐trapped animals, nuisance animals, and public health samples) used by the USDA National Rabies Management Program.

3.Strange acting, found dead, and public health animals were ...