Stirling Council Population Projection 2022_2032 (October 2025)

The National Records of Scotland (NRS) recently published the results of its latest round of population projections for sub-national areas in Scotland. These are calculated using population estimates from a base year, in this case 2022. The figures are then rolled forward on the basis of past trends in fertility, mortality and net migration for individual council and health board areas to the year 2047. NRS assumes that past trends will continue, therefore they should not be seen as precise forecasts of the future population. In many areas, including Stirling, migration is the most important component of population change. It is also important to note that projections become more uncertain the further ahead they go, especially for smaller council areas like Stirling. With this in mind this briefing note will focus on Stirling’s population projection from 2022 to 2032. The primary purpose of the national population projections is to provide an estimate of the future population of Scotland as a common framework for use in national planning in a number of different fields such as education and health. Projections are also used for teacher workforce models and looking at the implications of an ageing population.苏格兰国家档案署（National Records of Scotland, NRS）近日发布了其针对苏格兰次国家级区域的最新一轮人口预测结果。该预测以基准年的人口估算数据为基础，本次基准年为2022年。随后，研究基于各地方议会及卫生署辖区过往的生育率、死亡率与净移民趋势，将人口估算数据推演至2047年。苏格兰国家档案署假设过往趋势将持续，因此该预测结果不应被视为未来人口的精准预判。在包括斯特灵（Stirling）在内的诸多辖区中，移民是人口变动的最关键构成要素。同时需注意，预测的时间跨度越长，结果的不确定性越高，对于斯特灵这类规模较小的地方议会辖区而言尤为如此。基于此，本情况简报将聚焦2022年至2032年期间斯特灵的人口预测情况。全国人口预测的核心目的，是为苏格兰未来人口规模提供估算结果，以此作为教育、卫生等多个领域国家规划的通用框架。此外，人口预测还可用于教师队伍模型构建，以及研判人口老龄化带来的各类影响。