<b>Decadal transient population dynamics reveal the shifting importance of fecundity and survival in a logged subtropical forest</b>
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1. Forest recovery after deforestation or logging is essential for restoring vegetation carbon stocks and biodiversity. Predicting the pace of forest recovery requires demographic models. However, our demographic knowledge of the short-term and time-varying (i.e., transient) dynamics in post-disturbance environments remains limited. This knowledge gap impedes the development of restoration practices that address both immediate and long-term recovery needs. 2. Using 11 years of demographic data from a degraded subtropical forest after selective logging, we constructed integral projection models (IPMs) to estimate both short-term transient (r) and long-term asymptotic (λs) population growth rates for Pinus massoniana, a pioneer and dominant tree widely used in reforestation projects in southeast China. We also conducted elasticity analysis to identify the key life stages and vital rates that had the largest effect on the asymptotic and transient population growth rates. 3. The transient growth rates revealed a rapid population growth in the first three years following logging (r > 1) that gradually declined over time (r <1). However, the asymptotic projections suggest that the population will slowly decline in the long-term post-recovery (λs < 1). Elasticity analysis revealed that early in the recovery process, the fecundity of the remaining adult trees had the highest effect on population fitness. However, in the later stages, the key vital rate shifted toward plant survival. Interestingly, even after a decade of recovery, the population stage structure remained heavily skewed, with a substantially low proportion of large-sized trees compared to the stable stage distribution (SSD) at equilibrium (similarity < 30% relative to SSD). 4. Synthesis. Our findings provide key insights for restoration management by demonstrating that the life stages that, if improved by management, would have the greatest effect on population recovery shifted over time. While management interventions that enhance seedling recruitment are most effective early in the recovery process, improvements in plant survival become increasingly critical as recovery progresses. Additionally, our study highlights the considerable time lag in the recovery of the stage structure for long-lived trees post-disturbance, with important implications for predicting the long-term transient effects of human disturbance on the structural complexity of forests.
