The influence of drinking consequences on alcohol expectancy likelihoods and valences: an item level multilevel approach

Theories of risk evaluation propose that experiencing an alcohol consequence should increase expectancies of that consequence occurring in the future. Prior studies have consistently found this to be true for positive, but not negative consequences. However, previous research has aggregated positive and negative consequences thus limiting the conclusions we can draw about specific consequence expectancies. We re-analyzed data from a sample of college students who drank in the past 12-months (n = 378), using Bayesian cross-classified multilevel ordinal regressions to estimate the associations between the experience of 39 different alcohol related consequences, participants’ expectancies for future drinking episodes, and the differences in these associations across participants and consequences. We then performed a replication in a new dataset (n = 264). Our results align with expectancy theory suggesting that people do update their expectancy likelihoods and valences based on experiences. Implications of this work and avenues for future research are discussed.

风险评价理论提出，经历酒精带来的后果应当增加对未来发生类似后果的预期。先前的研究始终一致地发现，这一现象适用于正面后果，但对于负面后果则不然。然而，以往的研究将正面与负面后果合并分析，从而限制了我们对特定后果预期的结论。我们对过去12个月内饮酒的大学学生样本（n = 378）的数据进行了重新分析，采用贝叶斯交叉分类的多级有序回归来估计39种不同酒精相关后果的经历、参与者对未来饮酒事件的预期，以及这些关联在参与者与后果之间的差异。随后，我们在新的数据集（n = 264）中进行了重复验证。我们的研究结果与预期理论相符，表明人们会根据经验调整他们对预期可能性和价值的评估。本文探讨了该研究工作的启示及未来研究的路径。