Interim 2015-based population projections

IMPORTANT NOTE: The 2016-based TREND projections are now available. For housing-led projections the Interim 2015-based projections remain the most current. The housing-led projections will be updated when the 2017 SHLAA is published in Autumn 2017. see  https://data.london.gov.uk/demography/  for the latest trend GLA projections.   From January 2017 the GLA has revised its naming convention for it's population projections. Projections will now be labelled based on the latest mid-year estimate data which informs the projection. As such this set of projections is a 2015-based projection. This set of projections is labelled ‘interim’ in anticipation of a revised set of 2015-based projections which will inform the London Plan. Once released, in spring 2017, those projections will supersede this set. Four variants of local authority level population projections, one ward-level projection and one msoa-level projection are currenty available:   Borough Central Trend-based projection (using a 10-year migration scenario) Short-term Trend-based projection (using a 5-year migration scenario)  Long-term Trend-based projection (using a 14-year migration scenario) Housing-linked projection incorporating data from the 2013 SHLAA (consistent with the central trend model)   Small Area Ward-level projections consistent with the borough housing-led model MSOA-level projections consistent with the borough housing-led model   Documentation Methodology papers for all of the projections are availble on the documentation page  for this dataset. Reults Updates for the Trend and Housing-led projections are available on the documentation page. A series of  ward projection profiles are also available to dowload.   Notes A tool detailing the relationships between the various projections and variants can be found here . These projections make no attempt to account for the UK's exit from the European Union.

重要提示：基于2016年的TREND预测现已发布。就住房引领型预测而言，基于2015年临时预测的数据依然是最新的。住房引领型预测将在2017年秋季发布2017年SHLAA时进行更新。有关最新的趋势GLA预测，请参阅https://data.london.gov.uk/demography/。自2017年1月起，GLA对其人口预测的命名规范进行了修订。预测将根据最新的年中估计数据进行标记，该数据为预测提供信息。因此，本套预测是基于2015年的预测。本套预测被标记为‘临时’，以期待修订的2015年基于的预测发布，该预测将指导伦敦规划。一旦在2017年春季发布，这些预测将取代本套预测。目前提供四种地方政府层级人口预测的变体：区域中心趋势预测（使用10年迁移场景）、短期趋势预测（使用5年迁移场景）、长期趋势预测（使用14年迁移场景）、与中央趋势模型一致的住房关联预测。与区域住房引领模型一致的较小区域 ward 级预测和 MSOA 级预测。所有预测的文档方法论文均可在此数据集的文档页面上找到。趋势和住房引领预测的结果更新也可在文档页面上找到。一系列 ward 预测轮廓也可下载。注：一个详细说明各种预测及其变体之间关系的工具可在此处找到。这些预测并未尝试对英国退出欧盟的影响进行考量。