Distribution of Berries in response to climate change

Climate change and greenhouse gas emissions are among the most serious issues worldwide, significantly impacting biodiversity and food security. In Canada, berries such as the Saskatoon berry and Red Huckleberry hold considerable cultural, economic, and ecological value. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the future distribution of these two berry species across four time periods – 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and, 2081-2100, focusing on the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island as study area. This study is grounded on ecological relationships between each berry species and their specific tree species – Douglas fir for Saskatoon berry and Western Red Cedar for Red Huckleberry. Adopting, a novel approach, this study shifts from using traditional climate models towards species suitability models of respective tree species for species distribution modelling of berries through MaxEnt algorithm. Our findings indicate a poleward shift in the suitable habitats of both, under current emission scenarios, with Saskatoon berry showing greater adaptability to climate effects. This resilience is evidenced by a minimal predicted loss in habitat by the 2081-2100 period, in contrast to the significant decline observed for the Red Huckleberry. Each model was evaluated with area under the curve (AUC score) and all models showed a good fit, with Saskatoon berry models ranging from 0.878 (2081-2100) to 0.891 (2041-2060) while Red Huckleberry models ranging from 0.839 (2041-2060) to 0.843 (2061-2080). This research also highlights the influence of topography on species distribution. The insights gained are vital for informing ecological restoration and conservation strategies, ensuring the sustainability of these important berry species in the face of climate change.