Transport Sector Development in Uzbekistan: Structural Analysis, Logistics Performance and Forecasts to 2030

Uzbekistan, one of only two doubly landlocked countries in the world, depends on efficient transport to reach external markets. This article analyses the development of the national transport sector over 2010–2025 and forecasts freight and passenger volumes to 2030. The study uses official annual data of the National Statistics Committee, World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI) results and project documentation of international corridors. Methods include growth-rate and CAGR analysis, modal-structure analysis, linear and log-linear trend regression, and scenario forecasting. Total freight transported rose from 763.1 million tonnes in 2010 to 1,609.6 million tonnes in 2025 (CAGR 5.1%), and passengers carried rose from 4.07 to 7.90 billion (CAGR 4.5%). Road transport dominates freight, carrying about 1.4 billion tonnes in 2024, while rail carries 73.9 million tonnes but handles nearly four fifths of transit cargo. The linear trend model fits freight data closely (R² = 0.991; MAPE 1.7%) and projects about 1.89 billion tonnes in 2030 in the baseline scenario, with a range of 1.87–2.15 billion tonnes. Passenger traffic is projected at 9.2–11.1 billion trips by 2030. The LPI score has stagnated at about 2.6, with customs and tracking the weakest components. The article argues that new corridors, notably the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway, can shift the modal split toward rail only if matched by digital customs, multimodal hubs and fleet renewal.